the death of the free web

News.com tends to consist of little more than a collection of press releases and product announcements. However, their new feature, The Death of the Free Web is a fine collection of articles measuring the effects of the crash of dot-com-tomfoolery.

The bottom line of the articles is that we will all start to pay to web services. I agree and disagree. I agree because this is not a new idea. Jakob Nielsen has been saying for years that until there is a good scheme for micropayments (an easy way to pay for small transactions) the net will not mature. I don't normally search for Golf, it was just an example. Seriously. I used to walk by the driving range on the way to work everyday, and it looked so relaxing. So one day I decided to rent a club and hit a bucket of balls. I practically broke by ankle, I hit most of the balls backwards, and I got a blister.Also, companies like GoTo.com have been charging and gladly proclaiming it. They go so far as to list the cost to advertiser next to every search result. This is a brilliant exercise in simplicity and a straightforward business plan (although I sure as hell didn’t spend $0.53 based on my search results).

On the opposite end of the intelligence spectrum we have sites like Go.com, Snap.com, and Netscape.com which couldn’t possibly suck more. These properties deserve to crumble as they were built on false premises summed up nicely by the former CEO of Terra Lycos, “Audience was meant to drive stickiness, stickiness was meant to drive the network at large, and the network at large was meant to drive earnings.” If A then B. Duh.

On the other hand, the free web is doing nicely. Despite some hiccups in publishing schedules and hosting, as Jefferey Zeldman says, the independent content producer refuses to die. There are fantastic independent sites out there.

In a professional context, I’ve seen the web do some pretty cool stuff for real businesses. Not eyeballs or stickiness, but cash (increasing sales, reducing costs, increasing efficiency).

Regardless, the web continues to be about what it has always been about: funny pictures (like pictures of me, and of robots).

 

28 thoughts on “the death of the free web

  1. Yup, the Web has come full circle back to being a place where people publish for the love of doing so, with no monetary rewards in sight. This is a cleansing process right now, and unfortunately is taking a large — but predictable — toll on people’s livelihoods.

    But can it be argued, that this is ultimately not a good thing?

  2. In a sense what we are witnessing now is the same thing we all witnessed one cycle after the advent of cheap desktop publishing systems. When you could buy a Mac, with all sort of fonts (remember “San Francisco”?), and use it to print out posters, brochures, etc., everyone went around saying that the graphic design trade was going to disappear. Ten years later, when everyone and their brother was becoming a “home page designer” (and their brothers were becoming “web hosting companies”), we heard that the web design and programming trade was going to disappear. Design is design. Logic is logic. Style is style. All can be learned. And you can quickly and easily teach someone the technical skills needed to execute designs if they’ve already got the design skills. But not the other way around.

  3. The guys at silverorange will laugh at this as I try to say it as many legitimate times a day as I can. In response to Peter’s post directly above mine I believe an experience I had in Grade eight volleyball tryouts sums this up all very nicely. The coach pulled out his clipboard, looked us all in the eyes and said this:

    “I can coach and teach you about strategy, technique, and skill. BUT, unfortunately I can’t coach height”.

    He then read the “final cuts” to the team. Bye Bye short kids.

  4. I think the web has great potential in making money, but it isn’t with micropayments or other schemes. I believe money can be made by convergence. An example that comes to mind is a TV show called the Lofters. Its about a bunch of Torontonian geeks co-existing in a loft apartment. They also have a website and a talk-show. Viewers who like this sort of thing, can submerse themselves in not one but three realms. Of course, advertising is what makes the producers money, but we are a TV generation. We tolerate ads, because we live with them. Animators are doing Flash shorts on websites, attracting a following, than going to producers with numbers/reality saying things like,”I’ve 18,000 people visiting me on a regular basis watching my cartoons – are you interested?” And of course… producers are. Now with the advent of WAP, convergence goes deeper. As for the web being a stand-alone source of income, the addage is, ‘Nobody wants to spend money on the web’.

  5. Cool site, Sandy, and some good points. (But U8TV is a bonafide bomb.) I agree with your theory that the Web may be a sort of training ground for commercial media.

    I think micropayments could work provided that the content being sold is exceptional. A similar argument was made in the early days of cable TV: “nobody’s gonna pay for TV.” And hey, people pay for porn all the time.

  6. The only proven business that survies on the web is business that actually has a valid business model, and a market for what they are selling (and not selling it below cost).

    I’m sorry – but convergence tends to be nothing more than an industry buzzword.

    I’m fired arn’t I?

  7. I got three hockey cards in the mall out of a “Micropayment” machine. Quite and amazing scheme.

  8. Gee, Steve, don’t you think micropayments on your personal credit card for small priced items and information just a tad….what’s the word? Wasteful? Considering we S & M users of the plastic do ample damage as it is? I know it’s inconvenient to always type in your creditcard info all the time, but WHY do it at all? Save that available credit to take your significant other(or potential one) out on a date. Nothing replaces human interaction, even if it means not paying the actual bill for another ten years. The bottom line is why can’t the web stay as a form of ‘fee-free’ info access? Why spend money on it at all?

  9. Sandy–for that site of yours–I was wondering, did you just copy the HTML, or are you planning on publishing daily Canadian Culture articles too?

  10. Young bodies. Old brains. What else can be said of AOV? Yer right on with this one Steve (per usual).

  11. Oh. My God. Not a joke. A major mistake! Jesus. My deepest apologies to all involved. That page was an experiment and NOT for public use. (The actual page is up now) I feel like a complete schmoe. Again. Apologies to all!

  12. —- Island Edition Cafe —-

    Re: don
    by sandy on 05/04/01

    ZZZZZZZ….oh. Sorry. Did Mike say something different? Still blowing his own horn? Oh. Alright. wake me when he’s done. ZZZZZZZZ….

  13. Hey, I did write that. Wow. I also wrote this:
    Re: don
    by sandy on 04/30/01

    I visited forgetmag. I liked it! Nice work. I really liked the ‘I Hate…’ comic. Is that a syndicated strip or done locally? Very Crumb-esque. I find these threads interesting. It’s like watching the Hatfields and McCoys on opposite ends of a river hurling stones at each other. KJB, you have a great site, and you got my bookmark, but you don’t need to hurl stones(same with Mike) at your ‘competition’. You could poke an eye out or something.

    Again. Sorry.

  14. Ok, I was going to not say anything else, but, shit, you can’t defend this.

    “That page was an experiment and NOT for public use”

    What?

    That page was Forget Mag. You are experimenting with our work? Someone just sent me an email that summed it up this way: “oops, I posted a site I hadn’t finished ripping off yet.”

    Makes good sense to me.

    You took it from me and lecky — arrogant brash, ignorant, too young, too cocky, too repetitve, lecky — tho right, you know that?

    It’s a 100% rip-off. Let’s be clear on that. Despite the blue lines (Were the blue lines to mask the rip-off?) If it is an experiment, why change it at all? Why put “copyright” logos on stuff that is not yours? Is it for later use? Are you not done yet?

    Why don’t you delete it and start over, on your own. We wouldn’t cop your (or anyone’s) work. Especially after mocking it (or its creator) in public.

    With that, apology accepted (can’t speak for Leck tho).

  15. Sandy, your confusing thesis on micropayments has captured my attention. Your question “why can’t the web stay as a form of ‘fee-free’ info access? Why spend money on it at all?” is a very interesting one. A little idealistic, but interesting. The “web” is a medium just like TV, print, yelling out loud, sign language etc. To enforce or want to to enforce a blanket statement such as “everything should be free” is like trying to tell a child they can’t grow up. It’s inevitable. The web is an efficient way to handle transactions. It is quick, somewhat reliable (ITAS being the exception), and when it’s done right it can be a very satisfying customer experience (Dell). We live in a world where we buy and sell. Excluding the web from this reality, especially when it is what supports the web (buying and selling bandwidth) is impossible.

    There will always be free content, give-aways, and crap. Just like in every other medium humans have been involved in. Why should the web be excluded from this rule? Micropayments are just a new way to pay. It is still paying though. Who said anything about credit cards being the way to pay either???? If it was that easy it would already be done.

  16. And really who are we to talk about ripping shit off; Mike and I stole the concept, spirit and most decidedly the logo for Forget Mag, from the Food Network.

    I can only hope that when the you know what hits the you know what, our Sump Pump is indeed in fine working order.

  17. Well, it was a long night.

    First I had to get a hold of my junkie lawyer in Las Vegas, then get a board room with enough room to house the entire Forget Legal Team, then fuel the team with a litany of uppers and black coffee to keep them working thru the vinyl night.

    See, I had just changed my mind.

    Ah sure, in the brazen foolishness of yesterday I suggested just forgetting about Sandy pinching our site. But fuck it, I slept on it and decided I would settle for no less than a pint of blood. And some digits. Carruthers is an ‘oh My God talented artist’, I thought, and he will pay.

    You can imagine what happened next. His lawyers; my lawyers; Mike’s lawyers (who are really just Jonah and Mike). Barking and bickering like fighting dogs at feeding time. A very heavy scene. An unreal mess.

    At about 4:30AM seeing the possibility of a protracted and fiercly expensive legal harrangue on my hands, Stephan MacLeod unable to write Fact and Opinion because he is producing the new Fatboy Slim album, and my lead attorney turned out completely and listening to the new Radiohead, I made an offer:

    “Alright, you theiving bastard,” I said. “You give me a comic strip to run on Forget Mag. And your thumbs. And we’re square.”

    I could see my lawyers panicking.

    “How’s bout this?” he answered. “I give you a comic strip, the first in a series of comic strips, with one very naked, very hairy lady, and I keep my thumbs.”

    “Deal” I said.

    For all of you that love happy endings, for all my peace-loving people, for all my independent women: Sandy Carruthers, new in Forget Magazine.

  18. Aren’t we actually missing the point about microbilling? (Perhaps we’re not… it might just be ~me~.)

    I first heard of microbilling simply as a word. No description, not a scintilla of detail attached; but the idea caught my fancy enough to do some neat (I thought) day-dreaming on the topic but I’ve never heard anyone express what I believe is the central point to be made.

    Ok, so ya earn $40K per year (let’s just say). Now, how much is a thought worth? Well, that’s impossible to say but I’d make the argument that every thought you think is a contributor either to the work you do, or to the support system (leisure, domestic, or other activities) that keeps you able to work.

    So you’re thoughts, when tied into bundles using strings of intellect, are things for which other people are willing to give you money. Problem is… in today’s economy you need to have discrete thoughts bundled into fairly large sheaves.

    But, discrete thoughts are worth *something*… we just don’t know how much. So, if microbilling is able to divide a cent into about a million or even a billion pieces then even the lamest thoughts might actually have some economic value.

    (I know this is weird, and some cid may help you with your concentration but bear with me….)

    Say I’ve figured out how to pot a begonia in a way that it will bloom precisely when I want it to. Let’s also say that I’m perhaps not the only one who’s figured it out… perhaps I didn’t even figure it out for myself and actually stole it from you – no matter, it’s still a thought. So I take the time to put it down in print (extended ascii?) and publish it on the web. I set the value at about $0.000000011459279 and your browser happens across it. You’ve got a threshold set such that nothing more expensive than $0.000001 will display and I slip under your threshold.

    I get paid. My thought(s) translate into revenue – unbundled, by themselves. I’m encouraged by the result (just can’t wait to take my $0.000000011459279 down to the Credit Union and pay off that student loan!) so I continue to write about stuff. Assume for a moment I gain a reputation for having interesting content on my page and the hits mount…. go wild and imagine a time in the future when my page actually pays me a living.

    I wonder how many fewer hits the train would be getting if I was charging a couple of thousandths of a cent for each page view. (I’d have made nearly a nickel last month!)

    Consider this too: If you can view a page for $0.000000011459279, and you always know where it is, what would ever motivate you to actually print it at a rough cost of 5 million times the view price?

    Microbilling? Let’s hear it for nanobilling.

    We claim to have a knowledge economy. If you accept my thesis here you’ll also accept that most knowledge in our society swirls entirely outside the economy. All that stuff must be worth trillions.

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